TEHRAN – Since the beginning of the current Iranian year, March 21, till May 30, the country has received 225.4 mm of rain, indicating an increase of 2.9 percent compared to 218.9 mm of rain recorded in the long term, according to the Meteorological Organization.

From March 21 to May 30, the country has received 70.2 mm of rain, which shows an increase of 22 percent in comparison to the 57.2 mm amount recorded in the long term, ISNA reported.

From May 22 to 30, one mm of rain is recorded on average across the country; compared to the long-term amount of 2.4, the precipitation has lowered by 60.1 percent.

Since the beginning of the current water year, September 23, 2025, till May 30, precipitation has been above normal in 14 provinces of the country. Recorded rainfall in Hormozgan and South Khorasan provinces has increased by 76.7 percent and 48.5 percent, respectively.

Despite increased rainfall, 17 provinces of the country are still struggling with water scarcity.

Tehran, Qom, and Semnan provinces have recorded the lowest amount of rainfall, receiving 39, 33.5, and 33.3 percent less rain than the normal amount.

El Niño can lead to normal precipitation in fall

As Iran has entered the El Niño phase, particularly in spring and summer, precipitation is forecast to be low in the southeast of the country in summer, but normal in fall, Ahad Vazifeh, the head of the Meteorological Organization, has said.

Currently, El Niño and La Niña phases are in neutral conditions, that is, the difference between the temperature of the water in the surface of the Pacific Ocean and 200 meters below the surface of the ocean, in central and eastern parts, is less than 0.5 degrees cooler compared to a normal situation, which indicates neutral conditions, he added.

However, based on simulated models, the temperature of water at the surface of the ocean is predicted to get more than 0.5 degrees warmer, and enter El Niño Southern Oscillation phase, ISNA quoted Vazifeh as saying.

The situation is not expected to affect summer much as summers are mostly dry in the country; rainfalls in the southern half of Sistan-Baluchestan, east of Hormozgan, and south of Kerman will be less than normal.

Precipitation in the fall will be influenced by El Niño and are projected to be normal, unlike last year, in which rainfall dropped significantly.

‘El Niño’ or “the boy” is widely used to describe the warming of sea surface temperature that occurs every few years, typically concentrated in the central-east equatorial Pacific.

‘La Niña’ or “the girl” is the term adopted for the opposite side of the fluctuation, which sees episodes of cooler than average sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific.